האריקעין Patricia, שטערקסטע אין היסטאריע, באפאלט מעקסיקא

The reason Hurricane Patricia grew so strong so quickly

Henry Romero | Reuters

If you think the strongest hurricane ever recorded appeared all of a sudden and out of nowhere, you're in good company.

Hurricane Patricia has intensified over the last 24 hours, and data from Air Force planes have measured record-breaking sustained wind speeds of about 175 knots (over 200 miles per hour), and gusts of up to 247 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. Those numbers make Patricia the strongest storm ever measured on the planet in the history of record keeping.
The storm's rapid intensification has shocked researchers and confounded models. So how did Patricia get so intense, so suddenly?

Kerry Emanuel, an atmospheric scientist at MIT, told CNBC that Patricia's sudden intensity may be due to the unusually warm water in the part of the Pacific where Patricia has been developing.
"Usually, when hurricanes try to intensify up to that speed limit, they begin to churn up cold water, and that starts to slow them down," Emanuel said. "That is particularly true in the Eastern Pacific."
Ocean water has different layers of temperature; it tends to be warmer toward the top, and colder at lower depths. The warmest water forms a thin layer at the top, and Emanuel said that layer of warm water at the surface is much larger than it usually is.
It also is a bit less salty than the deeper water, which means it is lighter, and it is mixing less with the colder, saltier water below.
"We have set a record number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere, and it is the consistent consensus that warming is contributing to the intensity of storms. We expect the frequency of high intensity events to increase."
-Kerry Emanuel, atmospheric scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
In short, then, the colder water that would normally inhibit a hurricane simply is not there.

Emanuel said the unusually warm water might be the result of the El Niño climate pattern, which warms water in this region of the Pacific Ocean. An especially powerful El Niño is expected this autumn and winter.
While all of that could explain what is happening, more data are needed, Emanuel said. He added that none of the models used for forecasting hurricanes, including his own, "got Patricia right," and it may be some time before researchers have clear answers.
The hurricane is expected to make landfall in the Mexican state of Jalisco on Friday night.
Emanuel has studied the effect of warming on hurricanes, and he said there is a connection between warming climates and the intensity of storms.
"We have set a record number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere, and it is the consistent consensus that warming is contributing to the intensity of storms," he said. "We expect the frequency of high-intensity events to increase."